Full Frontal Weather

Time-lapse clouds

2011-05-04T13:25:00.002-04:00

Via Bad Astronomy is this awesome series of time-lapse photographs in the Canary Islands. Bad Astronomy posts a lot of these and they are all amazing. They also feature a lot of stars. Duh.

But the linked to above is more about the clouds. Clouds at high elevations pushing into the mountain almost look like waves on the ocean. Beautiful shots of lenticular clouds over the mountain peaks. Lenticulars are beautiful to look at, but in my old job forecasting turbulence for airlines, they were a sign of trouble in the air. They are an indicator for mountain waves, which can cause some pretty severe turbulence. You can see this happening over alot of high, sharp peaks, like the Rockies and the mountains in southern Alaska. There isn't much that gets a dispatchers attention faster than a mountain wave forecast right through their flight plan.

Pulling a Voltron

2011-04-19T15:41:00.003-04:00

"Pulling a Voltron" is the lovely turn-of-phrase used by Brian Palmer, who wrote this article in Slate about the recent rash of storms impacting parts of the southeastern U.S.

Now I don't buy multiple tornados will merge into one. As the article states, the larger storm will pull energy from the weaker when and cause the weaker to collapse completely. One storm splitting into two, now that is a different story.

5 Bizarre Ways the Weather Can Kill You Without Warning

2011-04-19T15:33:00.001-04:00

Via Cracked.com, here are some fun things the weather might do, just to mess with your mind.

2011 Hurricane Predictions

2011-04-06T13:05:00.002-04:00

Meteorologists at Colorado State University have released a long-term tropical forecast for the upcoming hurricane season and, if they are right, it may be a big one. They predict sixteen named storms, nine of which will be hurricanes.

How do they come up with that? Atlantic hurricanes aren't just dependent on local weather, but also what is happening in the Pacific. In this, warmer than usual waters in the Atlantic coupled with cooler waters in the eastern Pacific can mean a greater chance for more strong storms.

In other words, Atlantic hurricane frequency is tied into what is called ENSO (El Nino Souther Oscillation). El Nino events, with warm waters in the eastern Pacific, can mean fewer Atlantic storms. In the case of forecasts for this coming year, cooler waters (La Nina) are forecasted, meaning a greater number of tropical storms are expected.

On Turbulence

2011-03-28T14:58:00.001-04:00

CNN posted a report on flying through turbulence. It's a good layman's discussion on why you don't have to worry about crashing if you feel a few bumps on your way from NYC to Vegas.

Winds and nuclear cloud

2011-03-15T12:42:00.002-04:00

I don't there are many people out there who haven't heard about the fire at one of the nuclear facilities caused by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan. As of right now, there is a no-fly zone in parts of Japan because of this.

The winds currently are blowing out of the west and out to sea (see Al Roker). As long as this continues people not in the immediate vicinity of the facility will avoid the worst of exposure.

But what about flights coming from the U.S.? Well, that's where the problem comes in. In order to get to Tokyo from the U.S., flights will fly over the far northern part of the Pacific or Alaska. This is because the flight path is shorter when flights move toward the poles. For a long flight like NYC to Tokyo, this will mean flying near the northeastern part of Japan, right where the radiation cloud would be. While it might not be as bad at higher elevations, people will be careful. As of right now, the no-fly zone is about 18 miles around the facility, which most flights should be able to avoid. If the winds shift or if it gets worse, this will obviously change.

For me to poop on...

2011-02-18T13:10:00.002-05:00

Triumph the Insult Dog does the weather. Enjoy!

5 bizzard ways weather can kill you

2010-12-22T13:44:00.001-05:00

Courtesy of Cracked.com.

Not ready for some football

2010-12-13T08:58:00.002-05:00

I've been a bad son and brother recently. I've been chuckling over the all the snow my family in the Upper Midwest has been seeing in the past couple of months while I keep seeing rain where I am (though I do want it to snow...).

Well, another snow storm hit Minnesota over the weekend. Some areas saw as much as two feet of snow. Along with blizzard like conditions, it wasn't a good time.

That includes for the football team that plays indoors. Why? Here's why. I'm sure you've seen the video already, but man! The Vikings wanted to play outdoors on Monday at the stadium where the University of Minnesota plays, but a) the New York Giants (their opponent) didn't bring cold weather gear. Which they would need because the wind chills will be below zero. In fact, the temps might be below zero.

Edmund Fitzgerald

2010-11-10T09:31:00.003-05:00

I haven't been posting much, but thought this deserved a mention. CNN.com has a really interesting article on the Edmund Fitzgerald, which sunk in Lake Superior in the 70s due to a strong storm that tore through the region.

To this day, because of this event, ships will wait in port for a storm to pass rather than set out to wherever their going. Just goes to show how much the weather can affect everyday life.

I love science

2010-10-08T11:19:00.002-04:00

I really do. It's fun, interesting, and it makes you think about the world around you. Take, for instance, this article (drawing on a new study published in Nature).

In the study, the researchers used data from a new satellite (active since around 2003), to study the affect on solar radiation on Earth's atmosphere. The sun is just now starting to come out of a minimum. During that time, the solar radiation across the entire spectrum was low, as expected. However, the researchers found that the UV radiation was actually lower than expected, while energy in the form of visible light was higher than expected. This is sort of contrary to what is expected, and will definitely lead to more research into the matter.

For instance it will be interesting to see what happens as the sun ramps up an expected maximum in solar radiation in the next couple of years (the sun has a well-documented 11-year cycle in radiation output). Will the visible radiation decrease as the UV radiation increase? If so, that will cause some thinking to be done across a number of science fields, including astronomy and climate science.

The smart people over at RealClimate are already pondering this and that. Naturally, there's a big wait-and-see component. As Gavin Schmidt points out, there is some movement to the data that implies there might be a minor flaw in the data due to satellite instability in orbit. From RealClimate:

"While it does seem clear that the overall trend [of visible light data] from 2003 to 2009 is an increase, closer inspection suggests that this anti-phase behaviour only lasts for the first few years, and that subsequently the trends are much closer to expectation. It is conceivable, for instance, that there was some undetected or unexpected instrument drift in the first few years. The proof of the pudding will come in the next couple of years. If the SIM data show a decrease while the TSI increases towards the solar maximum, then the Haigh et al results will be more plausible. If instead, the SIM data increase, that would imply there is an unidentified problem with the instrument."

Check out the RealClimate article for the image refenced in the above quote.

That's the fun of science. You get a data set and you need to figure out what it's telling you. Thinking is good for your brain. There might be a study about that somewhere...

They might need a new name

2010-10-07T09:57:00.002-04:00

Not that it's funny, but the natural phenomona that give Glacier National Park it's name is disappearing. I think we all know the cause, if even certain head-in-the-sand types don't want to speak its name.

It's more than just the glaciers disappearing that is the issue here though. The glaciers are a source of water that is necessary for the wildlife in the region. Heck, us humans require water too, and the western U.S. isn't exactly flowing with rivers like the easter half is. With the glaciers disappearing, people and animals will be affected.

Science fiction atmospheric study

2010-09-28T11:38:00.001-04:00

This paper is great fun. All hail nerds!

Flooding in the Midwest

2010-09-27T12:54:00.002-04:00

As a native Midwesterner, this is something of a concern for me. With storms that have dumped nearly a foot of rain in a short period, rivers across parts of Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin have overtopped. As the floodwater moves south, areas of Iowa will be under the gun next.

No rain is in the forecast for a while though, so hopefully will see a recession of the flood waters there soon.

Why to stay inside during lightning storms

2010-09-16T13:33:00.002-04:00

I need to be struck by lightning like I need another hole in my... wait, what?

Told ya

2010-09-02T13:20:00.002-04:00

As I said a few days ago, I knew I wasn't going to be last to make bad puns about Earl.

Earl from space

2010-09-02T11:36:00.000-04:00

It's all Earl all the time here this week. This time it's not some practical or boring like a forecast. It's a pretty picture of Hurricane Earl from space.

More Earl

2010-09-02T10:32:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Earl is still out there.

The forecast track for Hurricane Earl will bring it on the closest approach to tri-state Friday evening. The current position is south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and east of northern Florida. It will continue to track north-northwest, turning north and then northeast as it moves up the coast. The hurricane is expected to remain out to see as it passes by North Carolina, but it will be close enough that they will be affected by hurricane force winds and heavy rain late this evening and overnight. Earl will continue to move up the coast and will affect much of the Tri-State with heavy rain and gusty winds. The areas that will be most affected by the system will be Long Island, eastern Connecticut and coastal areas where strong storm surges and pounding waves are expected. The rain will begin for the northeastern U.S. Friday morning for parts of New Jersey and in the afternoon and evening for other parts of the region. Strong gusty winds up to 50 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds affecting eastern parts of the region. The storm will pass quickly up to the Cape Cod area, which will be affected by hurricane force winds Friday night and early Saturday morning. The system will move away quickly, leaving Saturday mostly sunny, though still windy.

More Earl

2010-08-31T10:10:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Earl brought lots of wind and rain to the parts of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm's track will take it up the U.S coast. While it is forecasted to remain offshore, some uncertainty is still in the track. Parts of the Outer Banks of North Carolina will want to keep an eye on this in the next couple of days, as well as parts fo the northeastern U.S.

It's Name is Earl

2010-08-30T08:43:00.002-04:00

Oh, come on! I won't be the last to use that pun. I'm probably not even the first.

Anyway, I'm sure that you've heard that Hurricane Earl is being a little worrisome for the northeastern U.S. Well, I'll definitely be watching the system, both here and especially at my website. It's not time to buy bottled water yet.

Climate science for smartasses

2010-08-20T11:00:00.003-04:00

I might be in the minority, but I firmly believe that understanding of a complex science like climatology and climate change in general is best told with plenty of snark.

H/T to mt.

Waterspout

2010-08-20T09:41:00.002-04:00

Check it.

Waterspouts can be thought of as weak, water-based tornados, though that isn't technically true in every case. They usually don't pack much of a punch, with winds that barely reach F0 status on the Fujita scale. Some, if they are in supercells, can be stronger, but these are more rare.

Hopefully that's covered by insurance

2010-07-23T12:23:00.003-04:00

From the annals of awesome headlines: "Sinkhole swallows SUV as storms slam Wisconsin.

Not to be outdone, south Florida is getting hit by a storm of the non-LeBron variety in the form of (weak) Tropical Storm Bonnie. After it's through with Florida, the oil spill in the Gulf and New Orleans are next in line. Like enough bad things aren't happening there right now.

Vacation's all I ever wanted?

2010-07-07T17:27:00.003-04:00

Tired of Grand Canyon? Do you think the Black Hills are dull? Is the beach too sandy? Then try a little storm chasing. That is sure to exciting. Unless it doesn't, you know, storm.

Not that it'll stop anybody

2010-07-07T10:48:00.006-04:00

Well, the so-called "Climategate" "scandal" is over. Not that there was anything to it to begin with.

Not that it'll stop the usual suspects from doing what they do so well.

It's strange really, when you think about it. The east coast is in the midsts of a record-breaking heat wave and there's not much chatter about global cooling. But the east coast gets hit with a couple of blizzards and it's obviously because of global cooling. Funny how that happens.

Of course, it must be said that what happens in the eastern third of the U.S. one week in July is not the harbringer of global warming doom, just like the a snowstorm in Buffalo in January does not mean climate scientists are a bunch of liars. That's because weather is different from climate. Duh.

As for climate... dude, it's warming. Actual experts say so. Who are you going to believe? Peer-reviewed scientists or people who get their money from oil companies?

Inside the beast

2010-07-07T10:25:00.003-04:00

Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers can be an addicting show, in part because of the force of nature and in part because the people in it are crazy. How crazy? Try this crazy. I might be a meteorologist, but I'm not big on, you know, sitting in a car while a tornado passes by overhead.

Heat wave of the century!

2010-07-06T09:18:00.003-04:00

Not really. It was an ongoing joke when I lived and worked in the Midwest that every time a snowstorm hit the East Coast, that storm was the Storm of the Century! for that particular year. Big media types tend to live on the east coast, and of course it's happening to them, so therefore...

Well, there is one heck of a heat wave expected for the northeast this week, with temps in the low 100s possible. That might seem like nothing to someone in the desert Southwest, but with dew points in the low 70s as well, that means some pretty high heat indexes. The rest of the week doesn't look quite as hot, but it'll still be hot and humid, with highs in the 90s in many places.

If you're living or visiting the northeast, make sure to drink lots of water and find someplace cool to spend some time. Heat like this is a dangerous thing, and I would hate to have your face melt off like that dude of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

(Middle) Earth

2010-06-11T11:04:00.004-04:00

Elves and Sprites really exist!

Pilots have long reported interesting energy phenomona high up in the atmosphere. Called elves and sprites, these are lightning-related events officially dubbed with the relatively boring name transient luminous events. They occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms and often occur well above the storm. These have proven difficult to photograph in part because they never last very long and in part because of inaccessability. There have been photos of them in the past, of course, but nothing like in a study conducted in Europe.

They used high-speed cameras to capture the genesis and formation of the phenomona. The hope is that study of the imagery will yield a better understanding of what causes the features and a better understanding of the electrical give-and-take present in the atmosphere, particalarly in thunderstorms.

Eat your heart out, Legolas!

Eyjafjallajokull

2010-04-15T13:40:00.002-04:00

You might not be able to pronounce "Eyjafjallajokull" but if you're in Europe, you're feeling the effects. Travel is shut down thanks to an ash cloud spreading over parts of western Europe. And by "shut down," I mean air space is closed. Don't know why flying in volcanic ash is a bad thing? Read this. Harrowing doesn't begin to describe that.

On the global warming front, volcanic eruptions have, in the past, dropped global temps for a limited time, as seen with Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It'll be some time before we'll even be able to deduce if Eyjafjallajokull has any affect though. That's the thing with climate. It always takes time.

Chance of rain

2010-03-29T10:56:00.002-04:00

That's one of my very favorite smart-ass'd things to say when it's pouring outside. A frontal system is stuck along the eastern U.S. coast, bring violent weather to parts of the southeastern U.S. Not to be outdone, the same system could bring 3-6 inches of rain to parts of the northeastern states by Wednesday morning. I'm guessing this is going to count as "out like a lion."

That's right... cats

2010-03-25T11:43:00.003-04:00

Courtesy of the esteemable LOLCats.

A snark-filled response to global warming skeptics

2010-03-16T10:33:00.002-04:00

From The Colbert Report and The Daily Show.

New meaning to "chance for rain"

2010-03-15T13:14:00.003-04:00

At least nine people have died from storm-related injuries from torrential rains that fell over the weekend, a lot of them from falling trees. As for why the trees fell, gusts were reported up to 70 mph in some places. Add in the soaked soil from inches of rain that fell and you will find places where the otherwise solid ground is loose. The roots aren't held in place as well. Get a big gust of wind and it increases the chances for a tree toppling.

The rain should be ending today though. The winds have diminished too. And thankfully, the rest of the week looks dry.

Active weather

2010-03-11T09:26:00.002-05:00

Well, apparently forecasters are expecting active weather this spring. Not only in terms of severe weather, but also hurricanes. Of course, hurricane season is difficult to forecast in general, so that forecast I'll take with a grain of salt. Too many factors go into the generation of hurricanes, let alone the longevity and path.

That said, baseball-sized hail in Arkansas is a sign that the severe weather season is under way.

Essential reading on Climate Change

2010-03-05T10:04:00.002-05:00

There is a lovely blog post out there called How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic, which even after almost two years is quite relevant. Which is a little scary if you think about. Blog posts should have the shelf life of a fruit fly. Skeptics really need to get some better arguments.

Anyway, with the recent so-called "Climate-gate" there is a new mad rush to spew the same old arguments again, only this time using stolen emails in an attempt to bolster these arguments. It's made its rounds in with the usual suspects, as Deep Climate meticulously documents.

Well, mt found an article from the Orange County (CA) Register, and completely, thorough dismantles it. It's not even fair, really. He takes every conflated or false claim being relentless evoked by climate sketpics and shows that, as his post title says, "they got nothin'". Take a little time this lovely weekend and read up.

Future posting

2010-03-02T10:23:00.002-05:00

Gah. I haven't posted in a while. Judging by the lack of comments, I might be writing to myself. Well, we'll just have to keep at it.

Speaking of weather, my wife and I just went on vacation to Paris. It was all very Paris-y and everything, and also very wet. It rained every day, which kinda sucked. Then I saw the storm we missed by a day and stopped complaining.

Snow-covered pumpkins

2009-10-28T13:16:00.002-04:00

Dreaming of a white Halloween? If you live in the Denver area and the foothills of the Rockies, you're in luck! Up to a foot of snow is possible for Denver, with other areas seeing upwards to two feet. The low pressure causing this headache (or laying down a nice base, if you're a skiier), is also whipping up winds in Southwest, where dust storms have been reported. When I was looking at weather reports, I saw gusts over 50 mph in some areas. Scary part is that I probably missed some even higher reports.

No, this doesn't mean global warming is done.

Weather News

2009-09-22T09:35:00.000-04:00

There are two weather stories making headlines today.

First, there is some devastating flooding going on in Georgia right now. At least four deaths have been reported, parts of a couple of interstates are shut down, and there is widespread flooding through many areas of the state. The governor has declared a state of emergency. In fact, some towns to the west of Atlanta have seen almost two feet of rain. Unfortunately, scattered rain showers are in the forecast everyday this week. Hopefully it won't add the problems already there.

The other is on climate change side things. World leaders are meeting the U.N. to discuss the impact of climate change. As their all supposed to be talking today, maybe check back in the next day or two for updates on this story.

Typhoons

2009-08-10T13:53:00.000-04:00

Closer to home, Hawaiians are getting ready to deal with Tropical Storm Felicia.

Further from home, people in Taiwan and Japan are dealing with a pair of typhoons that have already brought devasting amounts of rain (80 inches in some areas) to the area, resulting in widespread flooding and mudslides in Taiwan. Millions of people were evacuating from China as well as Typhoon Morakot moved into the country. Hundreds of people are still missing.

Another typhoon, Typhoon Etau, as already resulted in floodwaters and landslides in Japan. The typhoon is supposed to make its closest approach to Tokyo at around 9am local time.

So what are typhoons? They are what hurricanes are called in the western Pacific region. In Australia, they are called cyclones.

Lightning. In. Space.

2009-08-05T09:55:00.001-04:00

Excuses, excuses (seriously click the link... it's worth just for the pretty pictures).

Though it is a good excuse. Lightning is not something airplanes deal with. Space shuttles are the same, only more so. Especially with precious cargo like the COLBERT treadmill. Named after, of course, this guy.

Lightning. In. Space.

2009-08-05T09:55:00.000-04:00

When good articles have bad titles

2009-07-29T11:53:00.002-04:00

I am yet again pointing out an aricle on MSNBC.com, this time to call BS on the title of a piece about how climate affected the growth of the Inca Empire early in the last millenium.

The article is called "Global warming may have aided Inca Empire." Really? I thought. Now that is interesting. I love history and finding a historical link to my actually schooling and work as a meteorologist, I thought that was just fascinating.

Until, it turned out that it isn't actually "global" warming that the authors of the original study (PDF) say caused this, but rather an area of regional warming. The authors actually this toward the end of their actual study:

From an even broader perspective, the notion that temperatures were consistently higher than modern values during the 9th–14th centuries has received increasing attention in the Northern Hemisphere. The prevailing view of this interval, known commonly as the “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP), is that elevated temperatures were often only intermittently experienced and, in some regions, was apparently characterized instead by climatic anomalies such as prolonged drought, increased rainfall or a stronger monsoon system. However, evidence for the MWP being a global phenomenon is contentious, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, where there are few continuous, detailed palaeoclimatic records spanning this interval. Nevertheless, from the Marcacocha dataset we can infer that temperatures increased from ca. AD 1100 (after a period of relative aridity in comparison to much of the first millennium AD) and that conditions remained warm and stable for several centuries thereafter. (citations removed for clarity)

So, not global warming. Now the article on MSNBC.com doesn't actually credit global warming either. It uses phrased like "400-year warm spell." And the article does detail some important steps that Peru, currently feeling the affect of global warming due to glacial melting, could take to lessen the future impact. But it's not global warming. I can only imagine how some of the deniers will twist that headline...

Size does matter

2009-07-29T11:34:00.000-04:00

Some French scientists have been looking into why we see different sized water droplets during a rain event, as seen in this report from MSNBC.com. One theory is that smaller water drops collide and collesce into larger water drops as they move through a storm cloud. This new study instead considers the movement on the droplet as it falls. They even have video of this (via LiveScience.com... there's an add before the video which may or may not have sound). The video shows a water drop falling, flattening out, talking on air at it falls, and then shattering into smaller droplets. It's an interesting theory and one that I'm sure will get some more looks in the meteorological research field.
In other weather news, it's hot in the Pacific Northwest. I'm not a fan of 100 degrees temps myself. Then again, I don't know any sane people who are. And don't give me the ol' "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" line either. Because it's humid there too. Plus, an oven is a dry heat too, but that's doesn't mean I want to sit in one.

Thunderstruck!

2009-07-23T11:53:00.001-04:00

Ever been struck by lightning? Hopefully not, because I'm sure that it hurts. There are a lot of myths about lightning out there and about the dangers of lightning. As far as "severe" type weather, lightning is the most frequent. If you hear thunder, there is lightning. It's as simply as that. With so much lightning out there, MSNBC.com has an article about lightning and its dangers. If you're more into pretty pictures, there's also a slideshow with some nice pictures of lightning storms.

Clouds at night

2009-06-29T08:51:00.001-04:00

Here's a little something that was new to me when I read it: Noctilucent Clouds.

What the heck are those? That's actually a pretty good question. They are clouds that develop during the summer months over the poles and are the highest elevation clouds that this world has. They develop in the mesosphere, a whole lot higher than most clouds develop. There isn't a lot known about them, other than they appear enhanced thanks to things like volcanic eruptions and shuttle launches. The Wikipedia entry for the phenomonon has some more info as well as some pretty pictures.

Who ordered sunspots?

2009-06-18T08:54:00.002-04:00

A while back, I talked about the possibility of a new Little Ice Age thanks in large part to a lack of sunspot activity on the sun leading to less solar activity and therefore cooler temps back on Earth. Well, so much for that.

I'm no expert on helioseismology, but apparently some people are, because a group of scientists used that technique to study a jet stream through the interior of the sun. This jet stream is one of the sources of sunspot activity, according to the scientists. Once this jet stream reachs 22 degrees latitude, an uptick in sunspot activity is generated. Guess what? The jet stream is creeping closer. If everything works as expected, we'll see increased sunspot activity.

No wholly mammoths for you.

"Way too close?" Ya think?

2009-06-18T08:36:00.002-04:00

Don't try this at home (warning: sound).

It it a nice shot of a huge freaking tornado and shows the kind of damage that can be done to a hopefully empty building. It also shows exactly why I don't storm chase. Because who would want to be that close to a huge freaking tornado? Not me, that's who.

AF447

2009-06-11T09:14:00.003-04:00

I've been not posting about Air France 447 for a reason: because it's hard to say what actually caused the crash. I've ready a lot of articles about the tragic flight, and many of them cite weather as one possible cause. There is chance that we'll never know what exactly happened. But there is a still a chance that the weather was at least a factor. I've heard from multiple sources that storms were in the area at the time of the crash.

A recent article on CNN.com highlights not the specifics of AF447, but rather the general dangers of the region that the flight was traveling through. This region around the equator is called the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. This region near the equator is known for persistant thunderstorms. It is a ring of low pressure that wraps around the globe. This low pressure allows parcels of moist, unstable air to rise, forming thunderstorms. If you look at a global satellite picture, you will likely see these thunderstorms in a broken line through the tropics. This time of year, with more sunlight falling on the northern hemisphere, the ITCZ is to the north of the equator. During the northern hemisphere winter, it is located to south of the equator.

What can make this region dangerous to flying is the height that the storms reach. At their peak, thunderstorms cap off at the tropopause. This is the reason that anvil heads are prevalent for large storms. The rising, unstable air reaches the stable boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere and is stopped in its tracks. The clouds can't rise, so it stretches out in the direction that the upper level winds are blowing. This happens in the ITCZ as well, only the stable layer is much higher. The tops of these storms can reach up to 50,000 feet, higher than commerical planes can fly. As a result, if a pilot cannot avoid the thunderstorm and fly around it, they may need to fly through it. Within the storm, the plane will feeel a lot of turbulence because of rising and falling air within the thunderstorm, as well as the possibility of frequent lightning and hail. Weather radar equiped on all aircraft helps pilots avoid the worst of it. And better technology for everything from forecasting to the design of aircrafts mean that flights can fly through the ITCZ without issue.

Earth 2100

2009-06-02T08:24:00.003-04:00

Do you need to stay up late tonight, but you're afraid that you might doze off? Have I got the (potential) remedy for you!

ABC is airing a special called Earth 2100, about the changes that humans are helping to make to the earth and where our world will stand if things don't change. It will deal with more than just climate change (something I'm big on, obviously), including things like resource depletion and population growth. You may have heard this before, but water is the next oil. Climate change and available water are completely and totally linked. As climate change causes weather patterns to shift, where the water falls as rain changes as well. As populations grow, more water is need. Desertification is a very big problem in many areas of the world. I haven't seen the show yet (I'll be recording it, just in case I can't watch it tonight), but it has all the potential to keep you anxiously awake all night. So, you're welcome, I suppose.

By the way, Bob Woodruff (host of "Earth 2100") was on the Daily Show June 1. Check out the interview here.

More old news

2009-06-01T08:54:00.004-04:00

So I was just perusing around the interwebs today, looking at this and that and found an old article from February that I found somewhat interesting.

You have likely heard of that thing called globel warming. I may have even mentioned it a time or three. Well, one possible affect of it has been that the hottest day of the year now comes a couple days earlier. Some scientists did a statistical analysis on the temps and found that in the last 50 years or so, the hottest day of the year (typically July 21) is now occurring 1.7 days earlier.

Thinking about that now, I guess it's not a terribly big surprise. Sure temps are hotter, so you'd think that the statistically hottest day of the year would be hotter as well. However, as the article mentions, winter temps have been heating faster than summer. Because of this, there is fewer cold days lasting into the spring. There is less snow and ice keeping air temps colder. Temps will starting getting warmer because of this. I guess it's just another affect that people don't usually think about.

Auntie Em! Auntie Em!

2009-05-14T15:50:00.002-04:00

You know the movie "Twister?" Of course you do. To a meteorologist, it's one of those movies where you shake your head at some parts and want to look at with scorn, but when if it's on TBS you refuse to change the channel.

Well, a group of scientists are taking the fictional "TOTO" to heart, with a new system called "VORTEX2" (or Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2, which is better than some acronyms you can find out there). With lots of funding in lots of places, their goals is to study how, when, and why tornadoes form. Over the next few weeks through the middle of June, researchers will try to locate these supercells and surround them with an plethora of instruments, such as radar, barometers, etc., to gain a three-dimensional picture of how the storms form and change. All this will be presented later this fall after they have a chance to crunch some numbers. Of course, the producers of Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers are filming these scientists in action. So if you can't get to Penn State to sit through the presentation, you could always tune in there.

Storm chasers are crazy, by the way.

Um, waaahh?

2009-05-13T09:23:00.000-04:00

What do you do when a hurricane hits and knocks out the power for while? You're stuck at home since nothing is open and if you don't have a canoe, you really can't go anywhere. So you burn some candles, play some board games, make some babies?.

That's right. A Houston area hospital is actually expecting more babies to be born in June of this year thanks to Hurricane Ike, which impacting the Houston area in mid September of 2008. Let's just hope that the kids don't hear that story. The might end up scarred for life.

Little Ice Age?

2009-05-06T10:43:00.001-04:00

So, did you hear that stuff about the new little ice age?. A lack of sunspots has been linked to the the Little Ice Age, which occurred back in the 17th and 18th Century. It was a period of unusually cold weather, not a full-scale, woolly mammoth ice age (or the movie. The theory goes that the prolonged decrease in sunspots, called the Maunder Minimum, caused this time of cooler temps. It's not a theory that is out-to-lunch by any stretch of the imagine. The sun is most active when there are a large number of sunspots. A less-active sun could mean cooler temps here on Earth.

That said, could this really lead to a new little ice age? Scienties have their doubts about that. While the connection between sunspot activity and temperatures on Earth are not well understood, their is a correlation there. But the other thing to keep in mind is that the Little Ice Age took place before the Industrial Revolution. There is more carbon dioxide in the air now than back then. With the current global warming trend, should a Maunder Minimum occur, all that may happen is that the warming trend will be knocked back a little. It would give the illusion that manmade global climate change is not occurring. Then when the cycle occurs once more, sunspot activity increases, and temps start to rise, we will be right back in the position we were in before. Which wouldn't be good.

Heckeva weather day

2009-03-26T14:58:00.002-04:00

There are a few sprinkles around the northeastern U.S. right now. It'll rain later tonight. That's nothing compared to the crazy weather other parts of the country. Parts of Mississippi were hit with severe weather, including tornados that levels houses and injured a couple of dozen people. Parts of Colorado and the Plains states are seeing blizzard like conditions, dumping a foot of snow on areas that haven't had snow on the ground for a while.

To top it off, there's what's happening in North Dakota. The Red River looks like it'll crest on Sunday at record levels (the old record is 40.1 feet back in 1897). Residents are sandbagging like crazy. The goal is have the main dykes up to 43 feet to try to keep back the water. Should the dykes fail, a secondary system is in place. The snow they got up there yesterday really isn't helping these efforts.

Cross-country skiing for science

2009-03-12T09:09:00.002-04:00

Three British explorers are going on a skiing trip. Sounds like a lot of fun. You know, being out in nature, hitting the slopes. Except these three people have something else in mind than just good ol' fun. They're out there measuring polar ice melting. These kinds of measurements can certainly be done with satellite and everything, but there is something invaluable about having the human element in this as well. For instance, they talk about one morning when they had to hurry up and move their tent because the ice was breaking up beneath them. If you're a slow waker in the morning, just imagine that wake up call.

Experiments and measurements like these are very important for the further understanding of the way our climate works. I've mentioned this before, but climate is not the same thing as weather. As it been cold in the northeastern U.S. this winter. My heating bills say "yes." But one chilly season does not mean that global climate change is over and done. The key words in that phrase of "global" and "climate." Snow in March in NYC does not mean the Earth is getting colder. Climate scientists are concerned that the years ahead will see no ice at all in the Arctic Ocean in the summer. That's kind of a big deal because the Arctic ice acts as a sort of climate regulator for the entire globe. Sunlight is reflected back to space, meaning that less radiation is absorbed by the Earth. Less radiation means less climate change. Everything is stabilized. Take away the Arctic ice, the stability is thrown out the window.

Important stuff, and worth keeping an eye on, no matter if you think climate change is real or a bunch of hooey.

What a job

2009-02-24T12:20:00.001-05:00

I love "The Soup" on E! It always, always, always makes me laugh. Last Friday, they had there annual Soup Awards, where they give out tin cans with bit of paper glued to them for all the "winners" (and if you've seen the show, that word means something different than Webster had in mind).

Well, one such catagory was for Weather Woes, and The Today Show's Al Roker came away as the winner. The best part? The acceptance speech. Yes, I too wish I was able to get rich doing 8 minutes of work and never, ever needing to be right while doing it. It is every meteorologists dream job. We salute you, Al Roker!

The Truth is Out There

2009-02-24T11:37:00.003-05:00

Paging Fox Mulder: I think we have something he may interested in here. Apparnently, some smart people have an idea that might explain some UFO sightings. What does this have to do with the weather? Well, according to this article, some of these might be attributed to a meteorological phenomonon called a sprite (check out this really cool pic of a sprite).

Sprites are formed during thunderstorms, when the air is electromagnetically destabalized due to the lightning in the air. The particles end up getting charged. This creates a polarization that Mother Nature really doesn't like. As a result, the creates a discharge of energy and results in a sprite.

Sorry, that I have to play the part of Scully in all of this...

Stormchaser season keeps coming earlier...

2009-02-10T16:37:00.002-05:00

A tornado touched down in Oklahomatoday. Some buildings were damaged and there were plenty of downed power lines, but thankfully there have been no reported injuries.

TV for nerds

2009-02-05T18:30:00.001-05:00

This is why I like Entertainment Weekly. 14 Weather Movies. Okay, mostly of them are, well, pushing it. The frogs in Magnolia? Really? Well, at least they have "Twister" right there at the beginning. Meteorologists can wail all they like about the science and whatever, but if it's on TNT, your local meteorologist is watching it.

Damn you, Punxsutawney Phil!

2009-02-02T10:21:00.002-05:00

Well, it's official. Six more weeks of winter, people, whether you like it or not. More snow, more cold, more wind. Ah, lovely. Take heart, though, because Phil is even less accurate than the average meteorologist. 39%?. And he still has a job? That's some nice job security...

Summer vacation in Antarctica

2009-01-23T09:50:00.002-05:00

So, even Antarctica is feeling the effects of global warming. Aside from the "well, duh, it's global warming" effect, scientists were going largely on the temps recorded at stations in the eastern part of the continent, in conjunction with the loss of ozone, and seeing that temps were actually cooling in there. New satellite data is showing that warming is occurring on the western side of Antarctica however, enough to offset the temp drops in the eastern portion.

The best part of the article: when one of the author of the report sited in the link above, Eric Steig, summed up climate science in one sentence

"Simple explanations don't capture the complexity of climate," Steig said.

Well, duh.

Survey says...

2009-01-21T09:27:00.003-05:00

So, apparently a survery of scientists around country was conducted recently to see where they stood on global warming. So absolutely no one's surprise, a little under half of petroluem geologists said that the rise in temps had nothing to do with humans. Given the nature of their job, that's to be expected. Unsurprising, nearly all of the climatologists surveyed believed that humans do play a part in the rise in temps.

What might come as a surprise are the meteorologists, of whom 64% believed humans had a hand in global warming. I'm not too terribly shocked by this personally. I think it's real and that humans are playing a part in this. But for meteorologists, "long-term" means seven days out, not seven years or seventy years. Meteorologists study what's happening in the literal tomorrow instead of the figurative one. Meteorologists laugh at 10-day model data.

More interesting would be seeing an expected version of the meteorologists answer, because I imagine that it would be nuanced that that. Meteorologists know as well as climatologists that "weather" is very different from "climate." Just because it's cold or hot in a given week, doesn't discount the overall trend. My guess is that you would get a lot of hedging from the meteorologist set, a bit more "well, it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case, but we really don't have the data, so I'm going to go with no." In a black-and-white survey, that "maybe" would be a "no."

Global climate change is a tricky business. Us meteorologists know that, believe me.

Vegas baby!

2008-12-18T12:44:00.002-05:00

So, I mentioned that winter storm coming to the northeastern U.S. for Friday, with the potential to drop up 10 inches of snow in some parts of eastern New York and northern Connecticut. Well, now, here is what that very same system did in Vegas the other day. Yes, Las Vegas. The one in Nevada. With the 110 degree summer temps.

I now can say that me and my wife are no longer bad luck charms for Vegas residents. The last two times that we've gone there, they got an inch of snow either the day before or the day after we arrived. We're thousands of miles away now, so it's definitely not our fault.

More climate change news

2008-12-18T12:20:00.002-05:00

Here's some more bad news on the climate change front. Since I'm writing this the day before a pretty big winter storm moving into the northeastern U.S., I think that it's far to say that just because winter has come back like it does every year, that the Earth can still be getting warmer in general.

No ice

2008-10-21T09:30:00.004-04:00

A new World Wildlife Fund has a new report out reporting that they expect summer sea ice to completely melt sometime between 2013 and 2040. Their reasoning is a logical one: positive feedback. The ice at the arctic circle, being very white, reflects back a larger proportion of the sun's radiation. Less of the heat is absorbed into the ground and everything stays cooler. However, as glaciers and polar ice melts, there is less ice to reflect back this radiation. Everything gets warmer faster. More ice melts. More radiation is absorbed into the ground. Everything gets warmer. More ice melts. Et cetera, Et cetera.

This type of positive feedback is a big problem, because it can be difficult to get back into a balance. We would need a really cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere to make up for the loss of ice, but it's harder to do that because more radiation is naturally being absorbed.

Of course, there's always another possibility, something that's been discussed in the past and a very strange result from global warming: the Northern Hemisphere is a deep freeze. You may have heard about this before if you like big summer movies. The article is an interesting read. According to the theory, fresh water melting and entering the salt water ocean will disrupt the North Atlantic current, shutting down the flow of warm water into northern reaches of the Atlantic, which in turn causes massive temperature drops in portions of North America and Europe.

This is why climate change is so complicated and the reason that people say "What global warming? It's snowing in Buffalo!" or "You could fry an egg out here! Because of global warming!" are both equally wrong. It's nuanced. It involves not only the the atmosphere in your home town, but the atmosphere and oceans in the entire world. There's a lot more to consider than the local 10-day forecast. The more people that realize this, the better.

Invest in sunblock

2008-10-08T10:01:00.002-04:00

CFCs are pesky complex molecules and a serious problem for the ozone layer. Satellite data from the European Space Agency that monitors the ozone levels in Earth's atmosphere show that the hole in ozone layer as increased. This after an apparent rebound in the previous year. You can see more of the data from the ESA's website here.

The reason planes have those little bags

2008-10-07T12:10:00.002-04:00

I've done a lot of turbulence forecasting in my time. It's a pretty big deal in the airline industry. Good turbulence forecasting can mean the a savings on fuel, a smoother ride, and nice experience all around. Relatively speaking, anyway.

Somebody did not get a good turbulence forecast". I'm guessing that the Quantas flight in question was surprised by the turbulence that they ran into. No flight is going to intentional fly into an area of turbulence that will lead to 30 injuries.

Of course, turbulence happens. It's inevitable. That's what the seat belts are for. You just have to hope that the flight attendants don't add to the problem.

1000 words

2008-10-07T08:49:00.002-04:00

I haven't seen any of CNN's "Planet in Peril" stuff, but being a meteorologist, I do have a keen interest in one of the aspects that this covers. That of course is climate change. To be honest, most of what I've seen out of news agencies (and CNN is included in this) is the ridiculous he said/she said type journalism that lets two "experts" "debate" on a subject. It's rampant in politics. It's strangely rampant in the world of science as well. You have a climate scientist talking about global warming and the impact it could potentially have on the planet and you have, typically, a spokesperson for some organization that is trying to debunk global warming, or at the very least say that it isn't manmade. It's a strange dynamic, since such a majority of earth scientists actually think global warming is real and is a big deal that it makes the dabate format seem absurd.

One thing that always seems to be missing is pictures. People can only listen to "I'm right/No, you're wrong" for so long before they decide that neither side knows what they're talking about. That's changed now (danger: sound). With more pictures like this, people who aren't up on the science, but understand what their eyes tell them will see the impact of global warming.

Going back in time

2008-10-01T09:06:00.002-04:00

So it looks like some very busy scientists decided to look a little deeper into the effect that En Nino has on hurricane development. How deep? Try 5000 years deep. It's some nice outside the box type of thinking but looking into soil records. I don't know much beyond what the article states in terms of their methodology, but it seems a viable way of looking into the past with hurricanes.

That's one of the difficult parts about meteorology in general and climatology in particular. We only have meteorological data going back some hundred years or so. Other than that, we have to rely on things like ice cores and fossils to deduce the likely meteorological setting of what took place. The Little Ice Age? We don't know the temps were cooler then because somebody was taking readings out at the airport. We know it from documentation at the time, signs of glacial advancement, and other oblique references to the weather conditions at the time.

That's one reason that climatology is such a difficult science to explain to the general public. You start talking about ice cores and glacial creep and you start losing your audience. Still, a lot of important stuff comes out of research like what these guys up in Mass. are doing. I hope we see a lot more of it so that we can continue to learn and understand our world a little more.

Shea, it looks like rain...

2008-09-25T13:47:00.002-04:00

Isn't weather a wonderful thing? A little rain (okay, a lot of rain) is threatening the Mets weekend series with the Marlins that will close out Shea Stadium. It would be a shame, I suppose, that the Mets wouldn't have the same opportunity as the Yankees had to say farewell to their home for the last 40 or so years. Worse though, is the effect that it could have on the playoffs this year.

Let's say the Mets/Marlins game gets rained out Friday and Saturday. They'll have to play a doubleheader against Florida on Sunday, but that only makes up one game. Every game is going to count, because the Mets are one of three team vying for two playoff spots, so they would presumably have to play on Monday as well. Adding even more bad news is they may then have to play a play-in game against the Brewers (or Phillies) on Tuesday. The playoffs then start on Wednesday, with no rest. Yay, fun!

Of course, they could always play in a neutral site, something that as of this morning MLB had no plans for. Or they could push the playoffs back. In which case, the heads of all the Houston players would instantly explode, as they were told that the playoffs could in way shape or form be pushed back, thus forcing them to play the Cubs at a neutral site called dubbed by Cub fans as "Wrigley North."

I think I can say with 100% certainty that MLB is not praying for rain.

Hurricane Venus

2008-09-23T14:44:00.002-04:00

I comes as no surprise the Earth is not the only planet that has weather on it. Mars, with its planet-wide duststorms, have made scientific headlines in the past. Today is Venus' turn. Space.com has an interesting article on recent findings about the winds around Venus. Like a lot of Space.com articles, it hits broad-brushed facts pretty well.

My forecast for Venus: hot and windy.

Weather procedure

2008-09-15T13:18:00.002-04:00

After a tumultuous last few weeks on the weather front (including two tropical systems), suddenly everything is quiet. It's like the cold front that just cruised off shore was part colonscopy, part frontal system. Weather models are showing that outside of the the coastal southeastern U.S. and the Gulf coast, there's very little chance for precipitation in many areas for the next couple of days.

Aftermath of Ike

2008-09-15T10:16:00.002-04:00

Ike was a devastating storm by any metric and clean up is going to a long effort. Help if you can. I'm certain it will be appreciated.

Storm surge guidance

2008-09-12T13:51:00.002-04:00

Storm surge is a pretty big deal with hurricanes. Heavy rain and wind can wear down natural and mad-made objects in the path of a hurricane, but storm surge is just as big a deal (if not more) in areas that are situated near the coast. If the town that you live is basically at or near sea level--like Galveston or New Orleans--a storm surge of 15 feet it obviously going to be devestating, even without the wave action.

But check out this graphic from the National Hurricane Center showing the maximum storm surge for Hurricane Ike. Looking at the graphic (which may change over time with the forecast... I've saved it in case any wants to see it), model guidance shows an appromiately 13 foot storm surge for Galveston Island. The international airport at Galveston is at an elevation of 6 feet.

This is guidance and may not actually be as bad as this. It is a sobering look at one possible outcome and useful tool as well.

Certain death?

2008-09-12T08:53:00.003-04:00

So, Ike is kind of a big deal right now. Check out this news article via msnbc.com. The National Weather Service actually issued a statement that said the following

"Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed."

Certain death. Heavy-handed? Frankly, no. I mean, we saw what happened with Katrina back 2005. The NWS issued states warning about massive flooding, storm surges, and breaking levees and there were still over a thousand people killed and many more stranded in New Orleans with, inexplicably, no one coming to their aid for days. Hurricanes as strong as Ike is going to be (potenially a Cat. 3 storm) in the shallow waters along the Gulf coast bearing down on the 4th largest city in the U.S. need to be taken seriously. The current track of the storm is going to take it just to the west of Houston. If you or anyone you know live in the area, urge them to head inland.

Judging from the lines of cars fleeing the coast, I'd say that people are taking it seriously. That's good news.

Santa's giving swimming lessons

2008-09-08T15:11:00.003-04:00

While I called "bull" on sensationist reports like this one from earlier in the year (admittedly before I had a blog or a website), it's not as though the threat of global warming is going anywhere. I'll tackle the issue in greater detail at some point.

But is this report is a little sobering regarding the extent of polar ice melting (the "death spiral" is a little heavy-handed). Get out the boat, people! It's time circle 'round the North Pole. Unfortunately, it may not be for the last time. Ice melts every summer in the North Pole. That's what happens when the sun doesn't set for weeks at a time. But this... not so much. This is something different and something worth noting. So long as the Earth doesn't go all Waterworld on us, I'll be happy.

Weather! In! Space!

2008-09-08T14:51:00.003-04:00

Most of the time, my weather posts are going to be related to the weather on, you know, Earth. But once upon a time, I was going to be an astronomer and sometimes I still find myself looking checking out space stuff. Well, a while back I saw this, a lovely example of clouds on Mars. They don't last long, and they certainly don't yield precipitation, but it goes to show you that even someplace as dry as Mars, the forecast isn't always as simple as "Sunny and cold."

Incidently, in looking for the link to that video, I found something else. Someone is a smart ass.

Test post

2008-09-08T13:58:00.000-04:00

Hi, just testing.