Vegas baby!

So, I mentioned that winter storm coming to the northeastern U.S. for Friday, with the potential to drop up 10 inches of snow in some parts of eastern New York and northern Connecticut. Well, now, here is what that very same system did in Vegas the other day. Yes, Las Vegas. The one in Nevada. With the 110 degree summer temps.

I now can say that me and my wife are no longer bad luck charms for Vegas residents. The last two times that we've gone there, they got an inch of snow either the day before or the day after we arrived. We're thousands of miles away now, so it's definitely not our fault.

More climate change news

Here's some more bad news on the climate change front. Since I'm writing this the day before a pretty big winter storm moving into the northeastern U.S., I think that it's far to say that just because winter has come back like it does every year, that the Earth can still be getting warmer in general.

No ice

A new World Wildlife Fund has a new report out reporting that they expect summer sea ice to completely melt sometime between 2013 and 2040. Their reasoning is a logical one: positive feedback. The ice at the arctic circle, being very white, reflects back a larger proportion of the sun's radiation. Less of the heat is absorbed into the ground and everything stays cooler. However, as glaciers and polar ice melts, there is less ice to reflect back this radiation. Everything gets warmer faster. More ice melts. More radiation is absorbed into the ground. Everything gets warmer. More ice melts. Et cetera, Et cetera.

This type of positive feedback is a big problem, because it can be difficult to get back into a balance. We would need a really cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere to make up for the loss of ice, but it's harder to do that because more radiation is naturally being absorbed.

Of course, there's always another possibility, something that's been discussed in the past and a very strange result from global warming: the Northern Hemisphere is a deep freeze. You may have heard about this before if you like big summer movies. The article is an interesting read. According to the theory, fresh water melting and entering the salt water ocean will disrupt the North Atlantic current, shutting down the flow of warm water into northern reaches of the Atlantic, which in turn causes massive temperature drops in portions of North America and Europe.

This is why climate change is so complicated and the reason that people say "What global warming? It's snowing in Buffalo!" or "You could fry an egg out here! Because of global warming!" are both equally wrong. It's nuanced. It involves not only the the atmosphere in your home town, but the atmosphere and oceans in the entire world. There's a lot more to consider than the local 10-day forecast. The more people that realize this, the better.

Invest in sunblock

CFCs are pesky complex molecules and a serious problem for the ozone layer. Satellite data from the European Space Agency that monitors the ozone levels in Earth's atmosphere show that the hole in ozone layer as increased. This after an apparent rebound in the previous year. You can see more of the data from the ESA's website here.

The reason planes have those little bags

I've done a lot of turbulence forecasting in my time. It's a pretty big deal in the airline industry. Good turbulence forecasting can mean the a savings on fuel, a smoother ride, and nice experience all around. Relatively speaking, anyway.

Somebody did not get a good turbulence forecast". I'm guessing that the Quantas flight in question was surprised by the turbulence that they ran into. No flight is going to intentional fly into an area of turbulence that will lead to 30 injuries.

Of course, turbulence happens. It's inevitable. That's what the seat belts are for. You just have to hope that the flight attendants don't add to the problem.

1000 words

I haven't seen any of CNN's "Planet in Peril" stuff, but being a meteorologist, I do have a keen interest in one of the aspects that this covers. That of course is climate change. To be honest, most of what I've seen out of news agencies (and CNN is included in this) is the ridiculous he said/she said type journalism that lets two "experts" "debate" on a subject. It's rampant in politics. It's strangely rampant in the world of science as well. You have a climate scientist talking about global warming and the impact it could potentially have on the planet and you have, typically, a spokesperson for some organization that is trying to debunk global warming, or at the very least say that it isn't manmade. It's a strange dynamic, since such a majority of earth scientists actually think global warming is real and is a big deal that it makes the dabate format seem absurd.

One thing that always seems to be missing is pictures. People can only listen to "I'm right/No, you're wrong" for so long before they decide that neither side knows what they're talking about. That's changed now (danger: sound). With more pictures like this, people who aren't up on the science, but understand what their eyes tell them will see the impact of global warming.

Going back in time

So it looks like some very busy scientists decided to look a little deeper into the effect that En Nino has on hurricane development. How deep? Try 5000 years deep. It's some nice outside the box type of thinking but looking into soil records. I don't know much beyond what the article states in terms of their methodology, but it seems a viable way of looking into the past with hurricanes.

That's one of the difficult parts about meteorology in general and climatology in particular. We only have meteorological data going back some hundred years or so. Other than that, we have to rely on things like ice cores and fossils to deduce the likely meteorological setting of what took place. The Little Ice Age? We don't know the temps were cooler then because somebody was taking readings out at the airport. We know it from documentation at the time, signs of glacial advancement, and other oblique references to the weather conditions at the time.

That's one reason that climatology is such a difficult science to explain to the general public. You start talking about ice cores and glacial creep and you start losing your audience. Still, a lot of important stuff comes out of research like what these guys up in Mass. are doing. I hope we see a lot more of it so that we can continue to learn and understand our world a little more.

Shea, it looks like rain...

Isn't weather a wonderful thing? A little rain (okay, a lot of rain) is threatening the Mets weekend series with the Marlins that will close out Shea Stadium. It would be a shame, I suppose, that the Mets wouldn't have the same opportunity as the Yankees had to say farewell to their home for the last 40 or so years. Worse though, is the effect that it could have on the playoffs this year.

Let's say the Mets/Marlins game gets rained out Friday and Saturday. They'll have to play a doubleheader against Florida on Sunday, but that only makes up one game. Every game is going to count, because the Mets are one of three team vying for two playoff spots, so they would presumably have to play on Monday as well. Adding even more bad news is they may then have to play a play-in game against the Brewers (or Phillies) on Tuesday. The playoffs then start on Wednesday, with no rest. Yay, fun!

Of course, they could always play in a neutral site, something that as of this morning MLB had no plans for. Or they could push the playoffs back. In which case, the heads of all the Houston players would instantly explode, as they were told that the playoffs could in way shape or form be pushed back, thus forcing them to play the Cubs at a neutral site called dubbed by Cub fans as "Wrigley North."

I think I can say with 100% certainty that MLB is not praying for rain.

Hurricane Venus

I comes as no surprise the Earth is not the only planet that has weather on it. Mars, with its planet-wide duststorms, have made scientific headlines in the past. Today is Venus' turn. Space.com has an interesting article on recent findings about the winds around Venus. Like a lot of Space.com articles, it hits broad-brushed facts pretty well.

My forecast for Venus: hot and windy.

Weather procedure

After a tumultuous last few weeks on the weather front (including two tropical systems), suddenly everything is quiet. It's like the cold front that just cruised off shore was part colonscopy, part frontal system. Weather models are showing that outside of the the coastal southeastern U.S. and the Gulf coast, there's very little chance for precipitation in many areas for the next couple of days.

Aftermath of Ike

Ike was a devastating storm by any metric and clean up is going to a long effort. Help if you can. I'm certain it will be appreciated.

Storm surge guidance

Storm surge is a pretty big deal with hurricanes. Heavy rain and wind can wear down natural and mad-made objects in the path of a hurricane, but storm surge is just as big a deal (if not more) in areas that are situated near the coast. If the town that you live is basically at or near sea level--like Galveston or New Orleans--a storm surge of 15 feet it obviously going to be devestating, even without the wave action.

But check out this graphic from the National Hurricane Center showing the maximum storm surge for Hurricane Ike. Looking at the graphic (which may change over time with the forecast... I've saved it in case any wants to see it), model guidance shows an appromiately 13 foot storm surge for Galveston Island. The international airport at Galveston is at an elevation of 6 feet.

This is guidance and may not actually be as bad as this. It is a sobering look at one possible outcome and useful tool as well.

Certain death?

So, Ike is kind of a big deal right now. Check out this news article via msnbc.com. The National Weather Service actually issued a statement that said the following

"Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed."

Certain death. Heavy-handed? Frankly, no. I mean, we saw what happened with Katrina back 2005. The NWS issued states warning about massive flooding, storm surges, and breaking levees and there were still over a thousand people killed and many more stranded in New Orleans with, inexplicably, no one coming to their aid for days. Hurricanes as strong as Ike is going to be (potenially a Cat. 3 storm) in the shallow waters along the Gulf coast bearing down on the 4th largest city in the U.S. need to be taken seriously. The current track of the storm is going to take it just to the west of Houston. If you or anyone you know live in the area, urge them to head inland.

Judging from the lines of cars fleeing the coast, I'd say that people are taking it seriously. That's good news.

Santa's giving swimming lessons

While I called "bull" on sensationist reports like this one from earlier in the year (admittedly before I had a blog or a website), it's not as though the threat of global warming is going anywhere. I'll tackle the issue in greater detail at some point.

But is this report is a little sobering regarding the extent of polar ice melting (the "death spiral" is a little heavy-handed). Get out the boat, people! It's time circle 'round the North Pole. Unfortunately, it may not be for the last time. Ice melts every summer in the North Pole. That's what happens when the sun doesn't set for weeks at a time. But this... not so much. This is something different and something worth noting. So long as the Earth doesn't go all Waterworld on us, I'll be happy.

Weather! In! Space!

Most of the time, my weather posts are going to be related to the weather on, you know, Earth. But once upon a time, I was going to be an astronomer and sometimes I still find myself looking checking out space stuff. Well, a while back I saw this, a lovely example of clouds on Mars. They don't last long, and they certainly don't yield precipitation, but it goes to show you that even someplace as dry as Mars, the forecast isn't always as simple as "Sunny and cold."

Incidently, in looking for the link to that video, I found something else. Someone is a smart ass.

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